Property prices are forecast to rise in the next 12 months, but at a slower or similar rate to the previous 12 months. The best performers will likely be in our smaller capital cities where growth has been exceptionally strong.
According to PropTrack's June Property Market Outlook report, Hobart and Canberra are expected to see the least growth in the new financial year with prices forecast to rise 0-3% and 2-5% respectively.
After a period of notable price increases during the pandemic, demand for homes in Hobart has fallen from its peak. Since July 2023, prices have declined by 1.5% and are now 9% below their highest levels.
In Canberra, the volume of stock for sale has increased the most among all cities, with new listings up 43% and total listings up 32% compared to May 2023 which is contributing to improved choice and slower growth in prices.
Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane home prices are forecasted to rise 3-6% in the next 12 months. While demand from buyers in Sydney and Brisbane has been reasonably strong, the Melbourne market has had a slower recovery. We anticipate an improvement in the latter.
Home prices are expected to increase by 8-11% in Perth and 5-8% in Adelaide, which place these cities ahead of others in projected home price growth.
The relative affordability of these cities, coupled with the decline in homes for sale, as seen by their respective 23% and 9% year-on-year decrease in total listings, have been drivers of their significant growth in the past year.
A tight rental market has also contributed to their robust price rises as many renters have turned to purchasing homes.
With expectations of ongoing growth in Perth and Adelaide, an interesting question arises, which suburbs are set to capitalise the most?
Future outcomes are difficult to predict, but the suburbs listed below were the strongest performers over the past year.
| Suburb | Capital city | Property type | Median sale price | 12 month % change in median sale price |
| Darlington | Perth | House | $1,150,000 | 42% |
| Kallaroo | Perth | House | $1,226,000 | 38% |
| Shoalwater | Perth | Unit | $301,000 | 37% |
| Armadale | Perth | House | $450,000 | 36% |
| Midvale | Perth | House | $510,000 | 35% |
| Plympton | Adelaide | Unit | $442,000 | 39% |
| Elizabeth North | Adelaide | House | $412,000 | 37% |
| Somerton Park | Adelaide | House | $1,638,000 | 36% |
| Elizabeth South | Adelaide | House | $403,000 | 36% |
| Henley Beach | Adelaide | Unit | $650,000 | 36% |
Darlington, Kallaroo and Armadale led Perth suburbs in terms of annual growth for houses. Prices were 42%, 38% and 36% higher than May 2023, respectively.
For units, Shoalwater recorded the largest increase in median sale prices. In the past year, they rose by 37%.
In Adelaide, the top growth suburbs were Elizabeth North, Somerton Park and Elizabeth South for houses. Prices grew by 37%, 36%, 36%, respectively, since May last year.
Units in Plympton and Henley Beach experienced the highest gains in median prices among all Adelaide suburbs with respective increases of 39% and 36%.
Demand from buyers is expected to remain high in the coming months, particularly in Perth and Adelaide where supply is short and homes are more affordable.
While we anticipate that prices will rise even further, the pace of growth has slowed and is likely to sustain this trajectory in the winter months.
